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A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

This is a rather hard query to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have piled up.

Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.